Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to meet China's President in historic visit

ANALYSIS

By China correspondent Matthew Carney

Updated Thu at 9:08am

President Rodrigo Duterte's four-day visit to China will reset the China-Philippines relationship and critically, the conflict in the South China Sea.

The Chinese are describing the visit as a "new dawn" and a turning point. The country's aim is to lure the Philippines away from the United States and weaken its strategic position in the region. 

It will be a big win for the rising superpower.

The Philippines has been one of America's staunchest allies in Asia since the end of World War II. It hosts five large US military bases and allows the US to use an air base at Palawan, which is only about 150 kilometres from the disputed Spratly islands.

China has constructed three military bases there in the last couple of years. 

The bases are critical for American forces to project power in the disputed South China Sea and they are also essential for America's pivot or rebalance back into Asia. So, needless to say Washington will be watching closely when President Duterte holds meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang.

It is of course unlikely, despite President Duterte's rhetoric, that he will "break up with America and go to China" or that any US bases will be dismantled upon his return. There is a deep historical and people-to-people connection between the US and Philippines, and recent polls show Filipinos overwhelming favour America over China.

But what will come from the visit is the restoration of relations after four years of tensions that started when the Philippines brought the case against China's claims over the South China Sea to the international tribunal at the Hague. 

Last July it ruled China had no territorial or historical rights over the South China Sea — a decision China rejected. 

But China wants Mr Duterte's visit to demonstrate to other ASEAN countries that there is a new model, a new way.

Trade, aid and tourism

Mr Duterte is going to get a raft of trade and aid packages, including new railways, energy and tourism deals. A four-year ban on tropical fruits will be lifted and that is worth billions to the Philippines. There is also talk that an arms deal will be signed.

Here too, China will progress it agenda. Many of the deals will be funded and administered by China's new global bank — the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

That is about changing the rules of the global financial game towards China and pushing out the Western-centric financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF. 

China hopes President Duterte's trip will send a powerful message to the rest of the ASEAN countries: if you come to our side there are tangible benefits from our growing wealth and power. 

China wants to break the largely united front that ASEAN has against it on the South China Sea. They want to pull ASEAN out of the US orbit and into China's.

Chinese President Xi Jinping was working on this just last week with a trip to Cambodia.

Cambodia has pledged strong for China and in return got 31 economic agreements, soft loans of $300 million, military aid and infrastructure projects like high-speed rail and airports. 

China now accounts for 20 per cent of capital spending in Cambodia.

We are likely to see the same scale tomorrow when President Duterte walks the red carpet at the Great Hall of the People and shakes President Xi Jinping's hand. It will signal the start of an era and China wants to use it to deepen control in South China Sea.

There is also expected to be a sweetener. 

China is likely to give the Philippines back some of it's fishing rights in the Scarborough Shoal. China seized it from the Philippines back in 2012 and this became the basis of the case at the international tribunal in the Hague.

This gesture will undermine the Hague ruling.