Saturday, 27 November 2010
Friday, 26 November 2010
The problem with Myanmar and the problem with Aung Saan Suu Kyi
For many years economic sanctions have been applied to Myanmar due to the presence of the Military Junta...which is not a government per se, just some individuals who make a lot of profit, don't manage or govern etc except through military threat and the usual methodologies.
Whilst UN sanctions have been appplied, Myanmar still exports huge stocks of oil and gas, timber and rubies every day to neighbouring countries. The oil and gas is bought 'under the counter' at very very low prices...the world oil-gas price 25 years ago. Very cheap energy on a massive scale. This oil and gas totally fuels quite a few SE Asian countries...their road transport, taxis, buses, etc and their mechanised farming, distribution etc as well as highly mechanised motor vehicle production plants, ship building concerns, high-rise development, school building, fuel for huge fishing fleets etc.
One of these countries is the world's largest rice exporter. What the sanctions, in effect, do is to provide a few countries with very very cheap oil and gas which keeps the production, distribution and export cost of rice, vegetables, fish, meat etc at a low price. These countries also produce cars for the world market: Toyotas and Hondas and most other brands.If the world rice price goes up, millions suffer...malnutrition and starvation, and the unit cost price of cars across the world goes up.
If Aung Saan Sui Kyi came to power leading a democratic government and all sanctions were removed, Myanmar could sell its products at world-parity prices and the world rice price would skyrocket and many millions would suffer. The SE Asian economies, many of them leading-light democracies, would dive as would the world economy, per se. Who on earth will pay quite a few highly-peopled nations massive ongoing compensation to enable Myanmar to be free? 50 million Myanmar folk benefit at the cost of 65 million Thais? How many Laotians? Cambodians? Chinese? Vietnamese? Malaysians? Pakistanis?
The probably well-intentioned sanctions make it in the neighbours' best interests that the military Junta continues in power in Myanmar. It also provides ongoing opportunity for neighbour states to bully the Junta to get the best prices possible.This is why the Junta can easily afford to free Aung Saan Sui Kyi now without any worry at all. She has been made powerless, in fact, by the very sanctions put in place to pressure the Junta to empower her. She doesn't matter anymore. It's business as usual. Business is business and South East Asia, as well as we in the West, depend upon this staus quo.
Whilst UN sanctions have been appplied, Myanmar still exports huge stocks of oil and gas, timber and rubies every day to neighbouring countries. The oil and gas is bought 'under the counter' at very very low prices...the world oil-gas price 25 years ago. Very cheap energy on a massive scale. This oil and gas totally fuels quite a few SE Asian countries...their road transport, taxis, buses, etc and their mechanised farming, distribution etc as well as highly mechanised motor vehicle production plants, ship building concerns, high-rise development, school building, fuel for huge fishing fleets etc.
One of these countries is the world's largest rice exporter. What the sanctions, in effect, do is to provide a few countries with very very cheap oil and gas which keeps the production, distribution and export cost of rice, vegetables, fish, meat etc at a low price. These countries also produce cars for the world market: Toyotas and Hondas and most other brands.If the world rice price goes up, millions suffer...malnutrition and starvation, and the unit cost price of cars across the world goes up.
If Aung Saan Sui Kyi came to power leading a democratic government and all sanctions were removed, Myanmar could sell its products at world-parity prices and the world rice price would skyrocket and many millions would suffer. The SE Asian economies, many of them leading-light democracies, would dive as would the world economy, per se. Who on earth will pay quite a few highly-peopled nations massive ongoing compensation to enable Myanmar to be free? 50 million Myanmar folk benefit at the cost of 65 million Thais? How many Laotians? Cambodians? Chinese? Vietnamese? Malaysians? Pakistanis?
The probably well-intentioned sanctions make it in the neighbours' best interests that the military Junta continues in power in Myanmar. It also provides ongoing opportunity for neighbour states to bully the Junta to get the best prices possible.This is why the Junta can easily afford to free Aung Saan Sui Kyi now without any worry at all. She has been made powerless, in fact, by the very sanctions put in place to pressure the Junta to empower her. She doesn't matter anymore. It's business as usual. Business is business and South East Asia, as well as we in the West, depend upon this staus quo.
From CNN regarding today's resignation of the South Korean Defence Minister
State-run North Korean broadcaster KCTV reported Thursday that South Korea had stated its plan to "fire towards our territorial waters with their Yeonpyeong-based artillery on November 22." The North said it asked "the puppet South" not to do so, but it persisted, and the North fired back in self-defense.
"If the U.S. truly wishes to ease the tension in the Chosun [Korean] peninsula, rather than protecting the puppet South, they should control the South, so the South will not hang on to maintaining the NLL [Northern Limit Line] by invading territorial waters and firing artilleries," KCTV said. "This incident shows that the acutal offender of the armistice is the puppet South and it is the U.S. which created tension in the Chosun west sea."
Earlier Thursday, state media said North Korea will launch additional attacks on South Korea if the South continues "reckless military provocation."
Pyongyang "will deal without hesitation the second and third strong physical retaliatory blow" if provoked, its KCNA news agency said.
As an example of provocation, it indirectly referred to a military drill that South Korea and the United States plan to hold in the Yellow Sea starting Sunday.
Meanwhile, South Korea said Thursday that it will strengthen and supplement its rules of engagement in the Yellow Sea, following the incident on Yeonpyeong Island.
South Korea was holding annual military exercises near North Korea when Pyongyang started shelling Tuesday. Shells from the South's exercises landed in North Korean waters, KCNA said.
KCNA on Thursday continued its verbal offensive against the South Korean-U.S. military drill.
"The U.S. and the South Korean puppet forces are foolishly contemplating an additional provocation aimed to orchestrate another farce and charade such as the 'Cheonan' case while kicking up rows and holding confabs one after another such as the declaration of a 'state of emergency' and 'a meeting of ministers in charge of security,' far from drawing due lesson from the recent shelling," KCNA said.
The aircraft carrier USS George Washington on Wednesday sailed toward the Yellow Sea for the drill, which was billed as defensive.
"It is a long-planned exercise," said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
"That said, it is meant to send a very strong signal of deterrence and also work with our very close allies in South Korea," Mullen said on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS."
"We're very focused on restraint -- not letting this thing get out of control. The South Koreans so far have responded that way. Nobody wants this thing to turn into a conflict."
On Thursday morning, Lee and his economic and security ministers met in Seoul.
The meeting began with a moment of silence for the Yeonpyeong victims. After the meeting, South Korea said it would boost its rules of engagement in the Yellow Sea.
South Korean marine forces based in five islands near North Korea and the disputed Northern Limit Line also will be reinforced, a government spokesman said.
The tense maritime border between the two Koreas has become the major military flash point on the Korean peninsula in recent years.
The Yeonpyeong attack also will lead to a plan for civilian safety on the five islands in the Yellow Sea, the government spokesman said. No details were immediately offered about the plan, but Lee on Wednesday ordered the strengthening of civilian shelters on the islands.
The islands include Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong, off which the South Korean warship Cheonan was sunk in March, killing 46 sailors. Seoul blamed Pyongyang for the torpedo attack, which the North has denied.
The Lee administration also will continue to closely monitor capital markets and foreign exchange rates, prepared to take preventative measures as needed, the spokesman said. The Yeonpyeong shelling sent ripples through South Korea's stock market, which has rebounded.
South Korea's economic and security ministries will cooperate closely, and the administration will publicize developments in real time to address major concerns and squelch rumors, the spokesman said.
The Yeonpyeong attack was the first direct artillery assault on South Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.
"If the U.S. truly wishes to ease the tension in the Chosun [Korean] peninsula, rather than protecting the puppet South, they should control the South, so the South will not hang on to maintaining the NLL [Northern Limit Line] by invading territorial waters and firing artilleries," KCTV said. "This incident shows that the acutal offender of the armistice is the puppet South and it is the U.S. which created tension in the Chosun west sea."
Earlier Thursday, state media said North Korea will launch additional attacks on South Korea if the South continues "reckless military provocation."
Pyongyang "will deal without hesitation the second and third strong physical retaliatory blow" if provoked, its KCNA news agency said.
As an example of provocation, it indirectly referred to a military drill that South Korea and the United States plan to hold in the Yellow Sea starting Sunday.
Meanwhile, South Korea said Thursday that it will strengthen and supplement its rules of engagement in the Yellow Sea, following the incident on Yeonpyeong Island.
South Korea was holding annual military exercises near North Korea when Pyongyang started shelling Tuesday. Shells from the South's exercises landed in North Korean waters, KCNA said.
KCNA on Thursday continued its verbal offensive against the South Korean-U.S. military drill.
"The U.S. and the South Korean puppet forces are foolishly contemplating an additional provocation aimed to orchestrate another farce and charade such as the 'Cheonan' case while kicking up rows and holding confabs one after another such as the declaration of a 'state of emergency' and 'a meeting of ministers in charge of security,' far from drawing due lesson from the recent shelling," KCNA said.
The aircraft carrier USS George Washington on Wednesday sailed toward the Yellow Sea for the drill, which was billed as defensive.
"It is a long-planned exercise," said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
"That said, it is meant to send a very strong signal of deterrence and also work with our very close allies in South Korea," Mullen said on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS."
"We're very focused on restraint -- not letting this thing get out of control. The South Koreans so far have responded that way. Nobody wants this thing to turn into a conflict."
On Thursday morning, Lee and his economic and security ministers met in Seoul.
The meeting began with a moment of silence for the Yeonpyeong victims. After the meeting, South Korea said it would boost its rules of engagement in the Yellow Sea.
South Korean marine forces based in five islands near North Korea and the disputed Northern Limit Line also will be reinforced, a government spokesman said.
The tense maritime border between the two Koreas has become the major military flash point on the Korean peninsula in recent years.
The Yeonpyeong attack also will lead to a plan for civilian safety on the five islands in the Yellow Sea, the government spokesman said. No details were immediately offered about the plan, but Lee on Wednesday ordered the strengthening of civilian shelters on the islands.
The islands include Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong, off which the South Korean warship Cheonan was sunk in March, killing 46 sailors. Seoul blamed Pyongyang for the torpedo attack, which the North has denied.
The Lee administration also will continue to closely monitor capital markets and foreign exchange rates, prepared to take preventative measures as needed, the spokesman said. The Yeonpyeong shelling sent ripples through South Korea's stock market, which has rebounded.
South Korea's economic and security ministries will cooperate closely, and the administration will publicize developments in real time to address major concerns and squelch rumors, the spokesman said.
The Yeonpyeong attack was the first direct artillery assault on South Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.
Studying the Leadership in North Korea
The following site gives a good picture of the North Korean personalities at play in the present times: http://nkleadershipwatch.wordpress.com/kim-family/
Thursday, 25 November 2010
Myanmar / Burma and Aung San Sui Kyi
Read Widely
The News Sources I usually use are: Xinhua China, SBS Australia, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, CNN, BBC and Radio France Internationale. These are my 'standard' info sources although the China Daily, The Bangkok Post and smaller info services from South East and North Asia are sometimes used, as are first-hand reports from people I know in SE Asia and in NE China. I'll usually mention the source.
Radio France Internationale regarding the rationale for the North Korean approach
Radio France Internationale - English Service This week's NKorean shelling came after Pyongyang's troops got jittery because of a US-SKorea military exercise, including four hours of live shelling, according to S Korean analyst Noh Jong-soon whose view varies from the predominant media coverage.
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