The problem with Myanmar and the problem with Aung Saan Suu Kyi

For many years economic sanctions have been applied to Myanmar due to the presence of the Military Junta...which is not a government per se, just some individuals who make a lot of profit, don't manage or govern etc except through military threat and the usual methodologies.

Whilst UN sanctions have been appplied, Myanmar still exports huge stocks of oil and gas, timber and rubies every day to neighbouring countries. The oil and gas is bought 'under the counter' at very very low prices...the world oil-gas price 25 years ago. Very cheap energy on a massive scale. This oil and gas totally fuels quite a few SE Asian countries...their road transport, taxis, buses, etc and their mechanised farming, distribution etc as well as highly mechanised motor vehicle production plants, ship building concerns, high-rise development, school building, fuel for huge fishing fleets etc.

One of these countries is the world's largest rice exporter. What the sanctions, in effect, do is to provide a few countries with very very cheap oil and gas which keeps the production, distribution and export cost of rice, vegetables, fish, meat etc at a low price. These countries also produce cars for the world market: Toyotas and Hondas and most other brands.If the world rice price goes up, millions suffer...malnutrition and starvation, and the unit cost price of cars across the world goes up.


If Aung Saan Sui Kyi came to power leading a democratic government and all sanctions were removed, Myanmar could sell its products at world-parity prices and the world rice price would skyrocket and many millions would suffer. The SE Asian economies, many of them leading-light democracies, would dive as would the world economy, per se. Who on earth will pay quite a few highly-peopled nations massive ongoing compensation to enable Myanmar to be free? 50 million Myanmar folk benefit at the cost of 65 million Thais? How many Laotians? Cambodians? Chinese? Vietnamese? Malaysians? Pakistanis?

The probably well-intentioned sanctions make it in the neighbours' best interests that the military Junta continues in power in Myanmar. It also provides ongoing opportunity for neighbour states to bully the Junta to get the best prices possible.This is why the Junta can easily afford to free Aung Saan Sui Kyi now without any worry at all. She has been made powerless, in fact, by the very sanctions put in place to pressure the Junta to empower her. She doesn't matter anymore. It's business as usual. Business is business and South East Asia, as well as we in the West, depend upon this staus quo.