(New Year Special) N. Korea's Kim unlikely to visit China if he sticks to nuclear ambition
2015/12/24 09:00
South Korea, the United States and other regional powers are urging China to do more in coaxing North Korea back to multilateral talks on the North's nuclear program. Kim, for his part, has shown no signs of giving up his nuclear ambition.
North Korea pulled out of the six-nation nuclear talks in late 2008 and staged its third nuclear test in early 2013.
China, which remains North Korea's key ally, diplomatic backer and economic lifeline, has expressed displeasure over the North's nuclear advances, although it remains unclear whether Beijing is exerting more leverage over Pyongyang.
With North Korea's ruling party preparing for its largest convention in 35 years in May next year, some analysts in South Korea have suggested that Kim may visit Beijing before or after the party congress as a bid to showcase his diplomatic achievement to the North Korean people.
Given China's stated goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, analysts said it does not make sense for Chinese President Xi Jinping to welcome Kim in Beijing unless Kim shows sincere willingness to abandon the country's nuclear program.
Zhang Liangui, a professor of Korean studies at the Party School of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, said, "There is a huge difference on the issue of denuclearization between China and North Korea."
"Japanese and South Korean media have reported the possibility of a visit by Kim Jong-un to China next year. But, China denied (the reports)," Zhang said.
"Japanese and South Korean media have reported the possibility of a visit by Kim Jong-un to China next year. But, China denied (the reports)," Zhang said.
"Taking into consideration the current nuclear stalemate, I believe that the possibility of his visit to China is low," Zhang said.
Wang Junsheng, an associate professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said a summit between Kim and Xi would be unlikely unless North Korea complies with obligations under a 2005 deal in which North Korea agreed to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for aid and security assurances.
"Unless North Korea returns to the Sept. 19 Joint Statement, such a meeting would be highly unlikely," Wang said, referring to the deal that was reached during the six-party talks in September 2005.
The deal eventually collapsed due to a disagreement over verifying North Korea's past nuclear activity.
This month's abrupt cancellation of a concert in Beijing by an all-female North Korean band is also adding to the diplomatic uncertainties between North Korea and China.
In what was seen as a fresh sign that ties between the allies were on the mend after years of strain over North Korea's nuclear program, the North's Moranbong Band, formed by leader Kim, had been scheduled to perform in Beijing on Dec. 12. But, the band abruptly returned home hours before the concert was scheduled to begin.
The canceled concert came about two months after Liu Yunshan, the Chinese Communist Party's fifth-ranked official, visited Pyongyang and held talks with Kim.
Both North Korea and China remained tightlipped over the reason behind the cancellation of the much-anticipated concert.
Whatever the reason, a diplomatic source in Beijing with knowledge of the ties between North Korea and China said Beijing "lost face" in dealing with Pyongyang.
"Outwardly, both North Korea and China pretend as if nothing had happened," the source said on the condition of anonymity. "But, mistrust over North Korea would be further deepened inside the Chinese leadership following the sudden cancellation of the concert by the Moranbong Band."
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