Monday 20 January 2014

Thailand: Why it matters, Present Troubles, and Pressure and Prognosis

Why Thailand Matters
Nice people, 70 million. Unique culture. 900 year direct Monarchic Society. A Real Kingdom.
World's largest Rice Exporter.
2nd largest economy in SE Asia.


Present Troubles: (Bangkok and North)
A war between New Capitalism and Old Capitalism, a battle between City and Country.
A war between two families using the people to fight the battles.
South:
A separatist movement wishing to become part of Malaysia...a ten year war already.


Pressures: Fuel.
The country has got by very well on very cheap under-the-counter fuel, oil and gas, from Myanmar for decades now. Thailand runs on cheap oil and gas. Myanmar, as it reforms itself, can now sell its oil and gas at world prices, thus the economy of Thailand, now, because of the opening up of Myanmar, is suffering a lot and will suffer more in terms of price of production of...everything.


Sad Prognosis:
Civil War, separation of the state into 3 disparate entities. Very bad for the people, very bad for the poor of the world in terms of an escalating rice price. Very unstable for SE Asia.


Happy Prognosis: Resolution using remarkable and unique well honed Thai methodologies of dispute settlement and social inclusion, requiring some redistribution of money.

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