N. Korea pushing for missile-launching submarines: analysis

Capability would present serious problems for regional opponents, but successful development far from assured

January 9th, 2015

Satellite imagery appears to indicate that North Korea is working at equipping submarines with missile-launching capabilities, analysis published Thursday said.

In an analysis published at 38 North, Joseph Bermudez wrote that the conning tower of a submarine first seen in July may contain vertical launch tubes for ballistic or cruise missiles. Also, the satellite imagery reveals the North to have invested a considerable amount in upgrading its Sinpo South Shipyard, indicating a major naval development program, possibly relating to submarines.

If they succeeded in equipping their submarines with missile-launching capabilities, this would significantly increase the threat to the interests of the U.S. and its regional allies, he wrote.

“Submarines carrying land-attack missiles would be challenging to locate and track, would be mobile assets able to attack from any direction, and could operate at significant distances from the Korean (P)eninsula,” Bermudez wrote.

Bermudez did include in his analysis, however, that the North did not yet have this capability, that development would be time-consuming and expensive and that there is no guarantee it will succeed even if such capability is its priority.

Still, Van Jackson of the Center for a New American Security said that sea-launched ballistic missile capability is a central objective for the North Korean Navy, even if it is not for Kim Jong Un personally.

“At a minimum, Kim Jong Un is permitting the research and development necessary for his Navy to eventually establish a sea-based leg of a nuclear triad capability, and the North Korean Navy seems to be allocating funding and manpower for it as a priority,” Jackson said. “Whether North Korea can reach an initial operating capability milestone in five years or 20 years will depend on how much and how quickly they invest in (submarine launched ballistic missile) technology and testing.”

North Korea’s objective is retaliatory nuclear strike capability, which Jackson said would “box in” South Korea and the United States, forcing them to pursue reconciliation with the nuclear-armed Pyongyang regime or “be prepared for North Korea to engage in coercive violence at will.”

“As best I can tell, everybody recognizes North Korea is on this path yet I know of no plan or strategy to disrupt them. At the same time, I have my doubts that either the U.S. or South Korea would be willing to reconcile politically with North Korea as a nuclear state,” he said.

However, one South Korea-based expert cast doubts on Bermudez’s analysis.

“There are aspects of 38 North’s coverage of the Sinpo-class submarine’s missile capabilities that stretch the truth,” said Kim Min-seok, research fellow at the Korea Defense & Security Forum.

For one, Kim said that this submarine’s size and hull length made the type of missile launch described in the 38 North analysis “almost impossible.”

Also, Kim emphasized the difficulty and expense of developing the technology for the vertical launch of missiles from submarines. For example, South Korea has already been working for 10 years on a vertical launch system to be deployed by 2023, he said.

“Although North Korea is likely researching a submarine missile launching system in Sinpo, contrary to 38 North’s claim, Sinpo-class submarine is not likely to operate this system,” he said.

Picture: KCNA