The true goal of U.S. policy towards North Korea since the death of Kim Jong Il has been “political suffocation and system collapse” of the DPRK

The true goal of U.S. policy towards North Korea since the death of Kim Jong Il has been “political suffocation and system collapse” of the DPRK, a nine-page ‘Memorandum of DPRK Foreign Ministry’ document said on Tuesday.

The document, provided to NK News by the DPRK Mission to the United Nations, provides a detail-driven and chronological account of why, from Pyongyang’s perspective, the Obama administration’s policies have since 2012 justified ongoing development of nuclear and missile programs.

Citing an increased focus on North Korea’s human rights situation, ever-expanding military exercises on the peninsula, and a ratcheting up of the sanctions regime, the timeline shows that the U.S. policy of ‘strategic patience’ is “none other than an aggressive and heinous “strategic suffocation” policy against the DPRK,” the document says.

That means the “root cause of escalated tension on the Korean peninsula lies with the U.S. hostile policy and nuclear threats against the DPRK, not the latter’s nuclear and missile tests,” the document continues, pointing to around 50 U.S. policies, statements and military maneuvers since January 2012 as evidence.

Overall, the document concludes, Pyongyang’s decision to bolster its nuclear and missile capabilities – alongside efforts to develop the economy – put the North in a “new strategic position.”

And that means the U.S. should now “take actual measures to show that they are willing to scrap its anachronistic hostile policy and nuclear threat,” an approach that would be a “first base of resolving all the issues.”

Photo: Michael Vadon/Flickr

OLIVE BRANCH?

While North Korea often justifies its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs – prohibited by several rounds of UN sanctions – with angry statements about U.S. policies, the timing, manner and style of the ‘Memorandum’ document is notable.

“It’s almost like they wrote a policy review for the Trump team and said ‘Here’s our take on it,'” John Delury, a long-time North Korea watcher at Seoul’s Yonsei University, told NK News on Wednesday.

“It starts with Kim Jong Un, not Obama … (meaning) there’s an implicit message from their perspective: the clock started over when the young leader took over,” Delury continued. “And here’s what he’s faced from you guys. Here’s what Obama did. He insulted him, he threatened him, and he sanctioned him.”

The detail-driven approach in the document, which lacks “threatening or ominous language,” further shows an effort of North Korean restraint, Delury added.

“They’re trying to say: here’s what strategic patience was. And it didn’t work, so try something new.”

Consequently, the document can be seen as “an effort to get Trump to change course…(to) try something new.”

Tristan Webb, a senior analyst for NK News affiliate NK Pro, agreed that the timing suggested the paper is aimed at President-elect Trump.

“Of particular interest are the final two sentences of the memorandum, which suggest the terms on which the DPRK might make a deal with the U.S.: some form of acceptance of the DPRK’s nuclear capability, and an end to the U.S. nuclear threat.”

“The most pragmatic deal here might be one where the DPRK accepts a freeze on tests and a shelving of the question of nuclear recognition, in return for the U.S. dropping its claimed right for nuclear first-use against the DPRK, dialling back on ROK-U.S. military exercises, and the U.S. dropping its preconditions for returning to the Six-Party Talks,” he said.

OVER-ARCHING GOAL

Daniel Pinkston, another Seoul-based North Korea expert, said the document did not, however, suggest a change in over-arching DPRK “national interests,” noting Pyongyang has long “been consistent and very transparent in their goals.”

“North Korea always throws this type of propaganda at new administrations and those who are not well informed about the situation on the Korean peninsula,” he continued. “They do this to justify their actions and to gain an advantage in strategic interactions with adversaries.”

Dr. Andrei Lankov, a North Korea historian at Kookmin University and regular NK News contributor, agreed.

“The political message is: we are nuclear, we do not care what you say about it, and we are willing to talk as long as you do not seriously question our nuclear potential.”

Additional reporting: Ole Engelhardt

North Korea may conduct its sixth nuclear test early next year timed for Donald Trump's inauguration as the U.S. president, security experts said Wednesday.

SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may conduct its sixth nuclear test early next year timed for Donald Trump's inauguration as the U.S. president, security experts said Wednesday. 

"North Korea may seek negotiations with the U.S. when it completes nuclear tests and reaches the stage of deploying a long-range nuclear-tipped missile," Lee Su-seok, director of the Center for Unification Strategy at the state-run Institute for National Security Strategy, said in a military forum held in Seoul. 

"In early 2017, it is highly likely that Pyongyang will detonate another nuclear device and launch a long-range ballistic missile to reiterate its status as a nuclear power." 

Citing a recent report carried by the Choson Shinbo, a Korean-language newspaper published in Japan, he said the North expressed hopes for dialogue and negotiations with the next U.S. government by favorably comparing President-elect Donald Trump to President Barack Obama. 

He speculated that the incoming Trump administration won't likely handle North Korean matters in a hasty and hurried manner, as it takes time for the real estate tycoon to review pending issues and appoint the right advisors. 

"Any dialogue with North Korea, if any, will be possible some time after Trump takes office in January. Inter-Korean relations will remain frosty and strained until the first half of 2017 due to the North's continued military provocations," he said. 

The communist regime has conducted its fourth and fifth nuclear tests in January and September, and launched some 20 missiles this year alone, to achieve its stated goal of developing a nuclear-tipped long-range missile that could hit parts of the U.S. mainland. 

As South Korea is engulfed by an influence-peddling scandal involving President Park Geun-hye's confidante, the North is expected to focus on psychological warfare aimed at causing internal conflicts in the South for the time being, the director said. 

In the scandal, Park's close friend Choi Soon-sil, with no government post or security clearance, is suspected of having abused her decades-long ties to the president to meddle in state affairs and even influence certain government appointments. 

"The Kim Jong-un regime will continue its verbal and military threats in efforts to urge the nearly paralyzed Seoul government to change the current strict policies toward Pyongyang," he said. 

His view is echoed by Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Unification Strategy Studies Program at the Sejong Institute, and other security experts. 

"Chances are high that North Korea will conduct the sixth nuclear test or launch a missile before the Trump government's inauguration on Jan. 20. Follow-up provocations are likely before the 75th birthday of the late Kim Jong-il on Feb. 16 or the 150th birthday of the late Kim Il-sung on Apr. 15," Cheong said. 

Kim Jong-un took the helm of North Korea in late 2011 from his late father Jong-il. Kim Il-sung, the founder of the communist state, is the grandfather of the incumbent leader. 

kyongae.choi@yna.co.kr 

Interesting changes...The Syrian Govt and the Turkish Govt working together to rid Aleppo of ISIS terrorist enclaves. From the geopolitical position of the West, the Syrian Govt is our enemy and the Turkish Govt is our friend, and we support, militarily, the insurgents/terrorist the Turks and Syrians are bombing...21st Century multi-polarity adjusted values. Expensive.

Interesting number...43% of American Trade Union members voted for Trump. This represents a significant change in the political dynamic for that country. Whether it is one-off or continuing will be interesting. The Left-Right phenomenon of the 20th Century does appear to be drifting... and is, at least temporarily, being replaced by more multi-polar projections and new connections; as it is in many other Western democracies.At the same time, as Western democracies become more rigidly concerned with national security over individual liberties, other bloc nations like China and Russia tend to be relaxing individual rights to some extent, the very expensive national security issue being effectively managed.

China in space

In 2016, having the remarkable experience of being really happy with a refurbished 2011 Apple iMac, at under half the price of a new one, I am looking into the purchase of an apple factory refurbished 5S iphone. 600 dollars cheaper than a new iphone. In CAIRNS, over 25 years, i have never actually needed a mobile phone at all, but Im thinking it may be a useful thing in Melbourne. I think we should all take up technology with sufficient wisdom to know, as is true, that mostly the new technologies simply dont deliver anything useful for about at least 5 to 10 years between models. This is usually how long things usually take, unless you enjoy disappointment as a way of life. Personal human development obviously takes decades longer than that...and hasn't changed its speed in at least a thousand years, at each essential generic individuated step. Unfortunately, there are no specials or bargains with that. As time goes by, we are all refurbished by these years, by ourselves, to some small extent, as individuals, but still yet mostly as our designers see fit to release or re-release us onto the market.

SOUTH KOREA (ROK): ROK might have to increase defense spending under Trump: minister

ROK might have to increase defense spending under Trump: minister

MND refutes statement, insists South Korea's contributions are adequate

Dagyum Ji 

November 22nd, 2016

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South Korea will have to accept an increase in defense burden-sharing for the U.S. Armed Forces in Korea (USFK) if Donald Trump’s incoming U.S. administration demands it, the head of Seoul’s arms procurement agency admitted on Monday.

The U.S. President-elect has urged American allies to carry a larger defense burden and his campaign’s rhetoric suggests it might happen after his inauguration, Chang Myoung-jin, South Korean Minister of Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), told a seminar in Washington.

“If there is a ‘huge demand’ for more burden on the part of the ROK (Republic of Korea), I think Korea will ‘inevitably have to’ embrace that,” Chang said.

Speaking at a conference co-hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Chang said the increase in the defense budget would bring about “a lot of resistance,” as the South Korean government would have to cut back on other areas, including on welfare.

“If that ever happens, the ROK government will place ourselves in a dilemma, but our focus and priority will have to be on defense, in my personal view,” he said.

DAPA on Tuesday offered an apology as Chang’s remarks drew heated debate. The agency argued Chang meant to say that it was “a matter for further consultation” if the next U.S. administration called on the South to pay an increased share of defense costs for the American troops stationed in the country.

The South’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) on Tuesday voiced opposition to Chang’s stance on burden sharing.

“The remarks were inappropriate,” MND spokesperson Moon Sang-gyun told reporters. “Our government shares its defense costs at the optimum level.”

Song Min-soon, President of the University of North Korean Studies (UNKS) in Seoul, argued that the U.S. and the South should negotiate new defense cost sharing “publicly, based upon the objective numerical index.”

“South Korea has domestically tried to avoid giving the impression of supporting excessive expenses since the first time the South officially provided maintenance costs for the USFK in 1991,” Song, a former South Korean foreign minister, said on Tuesday at the 59th Unification Strategy Forum held by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.

Speaking at the forum, another South Korean expert at MND-affiliate research institute reiterated that President-elect Trump may demand the South take on significantly more of the costs of American military presence in South Korea.

“According to Trump’s remarks, the U.S. will call on the South to pay 100 percent of the stationing costs for the USFK”, Suh Choo-suk, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), said.

Suh said the new stationing costs are estimated to come to $18.3 billion, based on data released by American Action Forum (AAF) on November 11: 2.4 times higher than South Korea’s current spending.

“Trump may consider the option of withdrawing the stationing troops if there is no increase in the defense budget-sharing,” Suh said.

Featured Image: U.S. Armed Forces in Korea (USFK)